Cheltenham Festival – Chat’s Supreme Novices’ Hurdle Preview
Not long now until the ‘Cheltenham roar’ and the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle gets under way.I have two ante-post arrows in my Quiver for this, the long time favourite MIN and the other being Tomstone.
Like many others, hearsay was a big factor in getting on the MIN express back in September and that train has gathered speed at both stops. It’s only in the last week that the momentum appears to have ground to a halt.
He is yet to come off the bridle in both his runs so far and his master trainer, who has won the last three renewals of the race in the same colours is sure to have left something to work on. If he’s your idea of the winner leave it until Tuesday if you’re not involved already. I’d be surprised if none of the bookies are 3/1 or bigger on the day!
I was very impressed with TOMBSTONE early in the season but in truth his last couple of runs have dampened my enthusiasm, at the 12/1 mark I would leave him alone.
Yorkhill has seen plenty of support since the start of the month and has gone from as big as 14/1 into 4/1 with some firms. I had him down as one for the Neptune Novices’ Hurdle and had backed him in December for the race so was a little surprised (and annoyed) that he runs in this. He’s been well tipped up at the preview evenings which has resulted in his price being decimated. Personally, I think he’ll lack a bit of speed for this and would like to see him in the Neptune Hurdle, a race I have backed him in ante-post.
Supasundae finished sixth in last year’s Champion Bumper and ran best of those racing prominently, he has not looked a natural over hurdles although his last effort was by far and away his best run. Johnny Burke is a talented and up and coming jockey who says it’s his best ride of the week. He is bred to be a Group 1 horse on the flat so the drying ground will only add to confidence but for me, his jumping will have to improve a hell of a lot. Supasundae beat Silver Concorde last time by 13 lengths so I’ll cross him out and his stable mate Vigil does not tick enough boxes for me.
It is worth noting that Nicky Henderson has not saddled a winner of this race for 24 years but of his two runners Altior & Buveur D’air, I prefer Altior.
His win at Kempton on Boxing Day was very impressive and he still looks green, a big rangy striding son of High Chaparral. There looks to be more improvement still to come and I can see him relishing the Cheltenham hill. Buveur D’air has also been impressive this season but his runs have just not resonated with me. It’s not his fault but I wonder what he would find if made to battle and dig deep?
The only other runner I feel worth mentioning runs in colours that we won’t be seeing for much longer. Penglai Pavillion won at Cheltenham in October then disappointed three weeks later back at the track when stepped up class. John Ferguson’s runners seem to run very well fresh and he will be coming here off of a four-month break.
I’m not sure there has ever been a runner at the Cheltenham festival that has run in a Prix De L’Arc De Triomphe? Penglai Pavillion was fifth in the 2013 running. He has the raw speed and class to enable him to be still involved at the business end of the race – don’t be surprised if the faster they go the better he travels.
A 40/1 shot with the bookies and he is available to small money at 90.0 on the exchange. If you find a couple of quid down the sofa, why not?!
Recommendation:
MIN 2/1 (Bigger on day)