Cheltenham Festival – Chat’s Tuesday Handicap Selections
As almost all the handicaps are, the handicaps and shoulder races on Tuesday are fiendishly difficult. Everyone will have different views and shortlists and differing betting strategies. I like to fire three or four bullets at the handicaps. Here are my selections and shortlists:
ULTIMA HANDICAP CHASE (14:50)
SHANAHAN’S TURN – Won the Galway Plate with an immaculate round of jumping, two runs since have been right handed, he is much better going left-handed, the more the ground dry’s the better.
HOLYWELL – Comes good at this time of year and at the Festival where his form reads 114, ran a huge race in last years Gold Cup on unsuitable ground, is 10lbs lower now than his Gold Cup mark, stable form a concern but Jonjo has a habit of bouncing back here.
MORNING ASSEMBLY – Lightly raced, was third in 2014 RSA, has some high-class bits of form, looks well in off 150.
THE YOUNG MASTER – Trainer won this last year and he has taken the same route with this horse, Sam Waley Cohen rides for his dad who is joint owner and also Chairman of Cheltenham Racecourse, take note!
KRUZHLININ – Is thought to be better left handed and given as one of the trainers best chances of the week. Pulled up on only other festival start in 2013.
UN TEMPS POUR TOUT – Interesting, 6lbs below hurdle mark and has the whiff of having been campaigned for this. Slight doubts over drying ground.
ALGERNON PAZHAM – I think he has a nice race in him and carries 1lb more than when touched off at Bangor on first start this season, form figures since are UFP which doesn’t inspire confidence bit stable are in form.
OUT SAM – Looks to be on a generous mark, he is not that big a horse and has done his winning in small fields but is unexposed).
INDIAN CASTLE – Was fifth in this last year from a mark 5lb higher mark and is 1lb lower than when recording a course and distance victory over Annacotty in January 2014.
Selections:
THE YOUNG MASTER ew 20/1 (ante-post)
SHANAHAN’S TURN ew 33/1
MORNING ASSEMBLY ew 14/1
INDIAN CASTLE ew 33/1
NATIONAL HUNT CHASE (16:50)
I can see MINELLA ROCCO going off a well backed favourite but I’m going to leave him due to his age and his price. The last eight winners have been at the front of the market. My preference is towards some bigger priced runners, there were a couple of 33/1 winners in 2006 and 2007 so there may be a big price due?
NOBLE ENDEAVOUR – Well tipped up at the preview nights and has been laid out for this. All wins on soft/heavy and his sire likes plenty of give in the ground.
DEFINITLY RED – Stays longer trips, versatile o the ground, is a course winner and has solid form.
VICENTE – Been around a long time, still only 7yo, the better the ground the better he will go. Can hit a fence but slightly slower pace over four miles will help.
MEASUREOFMYDREAMS – Beat Noble Endeavour last run five lengths, all wins on soft/heavy, did win his point on good ground.
NATIVE RIVER – Will get the trip however a negative has to be that his intended jockey has jumped off to ride Minella Rocco.
MINELLA ROCCO – Eye catching last run and has the right connections for this race. An obvious choice but is short enough and age is against him.
BALLY BEAUFORT – Trainer has come into form, hurdle win over Onenightinvienna reads well. Stays all day, multiple winning pointer, lightly raced over fences, big price!
Selections:
DEFINITELY RED ew 16/1
VICENTE ew 16/1
BALLY BEAUFORT ew 50/1
CLOSE BROTHERS NOVICES’ CHASE (17:30)
A stick a pin in race to end with, just 4lbs separating the field. Aloomomo is the favourite, i heard somewhere early in the season that this horses optimum conditions are softer than he is likely to get here, because of that and at his current price I have to take him on. Favourites don’t have the best record in this, only two of the last 10 have got the job done.
ALOOMOMO – Trainer was very poistive on his chances at a preview i attended. Into favouritism, optimum conditions may be softer than he will get here.
MCKINLEY – A little quirky but have a suspicion he is well handicapped and will like the ground. Irish trained runners have a poor record in the race.
BOUVREUIL – Was second in last years Fred Winter, only 5yo in the field and only one in the last 10 years has won this but that was also trained by Nicholls.
THOMAS BROWN – Trainer thinks he’s a Grade One horse so mark of 140 may mean he is in lightly? First time blinkers, course and distance winner, drying ground a positive, 2/2 point winner, 2/4 chases, unseated last run when well backed favourite.
ON TOUR – Has to be well handicapped off 138, beat Otago Trail first run this season over inadequate trip for both. Otago Trail now rated 154.
RACING PULSE – Trainer back in form and she won the race last year. Has shaped on a couple of occasions like a good horse. Big price!
Selections:
BOUVREUIL ew 12/1
THOMAS BROWN ew 16/1
ON TOUR ew 25/1
RACING PULSE ew 33/1