Cheltenham Festival Trends

So, with Cheltenham around the corner we’ve decided to look at some of the race trends, starting prices (SP) and trainer statistics at the Festival in the hope that it will give punters an edge when it comes to making their selections. For the purposes of this analysis, we are looking at results over the last 7 years.

We are going to start with the non-handicap races:

  • Of the 116 winners of non-handicap races at the festival during the designated period, 106 had finished 1st on at least one of their last three runs.
  • Of the 116 winners of non-handicap races at the festival during the designated period, 116 had run between 0 and 3 times in the last 90 days.
  • Of the 116 winners of non-handicap races at the festival during the designated period, 112 had run in a non-handicap race on their last start.
  • Of the 116 winners of non-handicap races at the festival during the designated period, 99 had run their previous race at track located in the South East/South West of England or Leinster. 76 of those winners had run at either Cheltenham, Kempton, Leopardstown, Newbury or Punchestown on their last start.
  • Of the 116 winners of non-handicap races at the festival during the designated period, 68 have been trained by either; Elliott (9), Henderson (16), Mullins (31), Nicholls (7) or O’Neill (5).
  • All of the 31 winners of non-handicap races at the festival trained by Willie Mullins ran without headgear and without a tongue tie. Furthermore, 30 of his winners had either won on their last start or fallen – 130 runs – 30 wins – 29 places – +14.87 SP_PL
  • All of Gordon Elliott’s winners had run at least once in the last 134 days, had an SP of less than 40/1 and had finished in the first 6 on their last start – 32 runs – 9 wins – 6 places – +57.75 SP_PL
  • Of Nicky Henderson’s 16 winners, 15 were at least 6 years old, had an SP of 6/1 or less and finished 1st of 2nd on their last start – 32 runs – 15 wins – 8 places – +24.39 SP_PL
  • All 51 winners of non-handicap hurdle races at the festival during the designated period had run over hurdles on their last start.
  • None of the 51 winners of non-handicap hurdle races at the Festival during the designated period ran in a maiden on their last start.
  • All 51 winners of non-handicap hurdle races at the festival during the designated period had recorded a win in at least one of their last 4 races.
  • Willie Mullins is the only trainer to win a non-handicap hurdle race at the festival with a horse returning from a break of more than 90 days. All of his wins came in the Mares Hurdle with Quevega.
  • Of the 51 winners of non-handicap hurdle races at the festival during the designated period, 49 had finished in the first four on their last start and 38 of them were last time out winners.
  • Of the 58 winners of non-handicap chase races at the festival, 57 had an SP of 12/1 or less on their last start which had come within the last 145 days. Of those 57 winners only two had failed to complete on their last start (one fall, one unseat) and on both occasions those blemishes were the only time in which the respective horses had failed to complete a race in their careers.
  • Of the 58 winners of non-handicap chase races at the festival, 42 had their last run at either Ascot, Cheltenham, Kempton, Leopardstown or Newbury. Form at Leopardstown in particular carries significant weight with 19 of the 58 winners having raced there on their last start.

Suggest Criteria – Non-Handicap Races – 2miles – 2miles 5f – Chase or Hurdle only

  • Aged between 4 and 9 years old
  • Had an SP of less than 40/1
  • Had run no more than 2 times in the last 90 days
  • Has finished 1st on at least one of their last 3 runs
  • Either won or was placed on its last start – if placed was beaten no more than 4L
  • Ran at Ascot, Cheltenham, Kempton, Leopardstown or Punchestown LTO
  • Did not run in a handicap last time out
  • Ran over either fences or hurdles last time out
  • Trained by Elliott, Henderson, Hobbs, Hughes, Martin, Mullins, Nicholls or NTD

Horses that met the above criteria have the following record in qualifying races during the last 7 years – 97 runs – 35 wins – 20 places – +52.79 SP_PL. In simple terms that means they won 53% of all non-handicap races over the detailed distances at the Festival in the last 7 years. Furthermore, horse matching the criteria that went off as favourite, recorded a win percentage of 62%!

In summary, when assessing horses in these category of races, you want to be looking for horses in form, that are race fit (but not over worked), with experience at graded tracks, who are in the care of top trainers. Always remember that trainers plot their horses for the festival very early in the season, especially when it comes to the big non-handicap races so personally, we would put a line through any horse that had previously run in a handicap. Given the testing nature of the track both in terms of stamina, pace and jumping, we would also be very weary about backing anything which had failed to complete on any of its last few starts especially last time out.

Moving onto the handicap races and this is where it gets difficult so we are going to split the stats so that we can look at hurdle and chase races separately.

Handicap Hurdle Trends & Statistics

  • All 35 winners of handicap hurdle races at the festival had an SP of between 9/2 and 40/1.
  • Of the 35 winners of handicap hurdle races at the festival during the designated period, 34 were aged between 4 and 8.
  • Of the 35 winners of handicap hurdle races at the festival during the designated period, 31 had run within the last 6 to 75 days (2 winners had not run in Britain or Ireland before).
  • In the last 3 years only Gordon Elliot, Willie Mullins, Paul Nicholls and Patrick Kelly have won more than one handicap hurdle race at the festival. Between them they have won 9 of the 15 qualifying races during the period. All of their winners had an SP of 12/1 or less on their last start, were geldings and were not ridden by claimers in their respective races at the Festival- 56 runs – 9 wins – 9 places – +93.00 SP_PL.
  • Certain trainers have very poor records in this category of race at the festival – Phillip Hobbs (1), Alan King (1), Charlie Longsdon (0), Gary Moore (0), Jonjo O’Neill (1), David Pipe (1), Nigel Twiston-Davies (0), Evan Williams (0) and Venetia Williams (0) have managed just 4 wins from 234 runners in the last 7 years (1.71% SR -147.50 SP_PL).
  • No horse which had their last run at either; Ascot, Fontwell, Huntingdon, Kelso, Naas, Newbury, Taunton or Wincanton has won a handicap hurdle race at the Festival in the last 7 years – 255 runs/0 wins/34 places/ -255 PL_SP

In summary, trying to find winners in the handicap hurdle races at the festival is never easy but using the stats above can help punters to assess potential value. For example, if you see a horse trained by a particular trainer such as those detailed in section 5 above or fancy a horse that had its previous run at one of the tracks detailed in section 6, you have to undertake a detail evaluation of that horse’s price because history tells us that they will be fighting an uphill battle to win and statistically speaking, you need the horse to be priced around the 100/1 mark for it to be considered any kind of value.

Handicap Chase Trends & Statistics

  • All 40 winners of handicap chases races at the festival had run between 3 and 40 times.
  • All 40 winners of handicap chases races at the festival had run over either hurdles or fences on their last start.
  • None of the 40 winners of handicap chase races at the festival during the designated period had run in a Listed race on their last start (48 runs – 0 wins).
  • All 40 winners of handicap chases races at the festival had recorded a win within their last 1 to 10 races.
  • Of the 40 winners of handicap chase races at the festival during the designated period, 39 were aged between 6 and 10.
  • Of the 40 winners of handicap chase races at the festival during the designated period, 27 had run at either; Cheltenham (12), Haydock (3), Kempton (3), Leopardstown (2), Navan (3), Newbury (2) or Punchestown (2) – 308 runs, 27 wins, 36 places, +31.83 SP_PL
  • In the last 7 years, only Nicky Henderson (2), Phillip Hobbs (2), AJ Martin (2), Jonjo O’Neill (3), David Pipe (6) and Colin Tizzard (2) have won more than one handicap chase race at the Festival. David Pipe has saddled a winner of a handicap chase in 6 of the last 7 years. All of his respective winners had an SP of 12/1 or less and were ridden by either Tom Scudamore or Jamie Codd – 10 runs – 6 wins – 1 place – +44.83 SP_PL. At the time of writing, David Pipe has Kings Socks (12/1) entered in the Browns Advisory and Broadway Buffalo (20/1) entered in the Kim Muir.
  • As with the handicap hurdle races at the Festival, certain trainers have a very poor strike rate in handicap chases – Tom George (0), Donald McCain (0), Tim Vaughan (0), Gary Moore (0), Willie Mullins (0), Charlie Longsdon (0), Venetia Williams (1), Paul Nicholls (1) and Nigel Twiston-Davies (1) have just 3 winners between them from 193 attempts which is staggering given the ammunition they have at their disposal.

In simple terms, finding winners in any handicap race at the festival is tough. If top trainers are struggling to place their horses to win then punters will find it equally difficult to find a potential bet. That being said, look for the key indicators, assess the form and the horses profile and once you have a potential bet in mind it’s crucial that you then assess the potential value, we can’t reiterate that enough.

For more key trends, betting tips and racing info visit us at wtdtips.com or follow us on twitter @WhatTheDuckTips. We also have an active profile with Tipstrr.com which has recorded staggering profit since we first started proofing back in December. A link to our profile can be found below.

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