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Cheltenham Festival – Key Trends


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Cheltenham Festival Trends

So, with Cheltenham around the corner we’ve decided to look at some of the race trends, starting prices (SP) and trainer statistics at the Festival in the hope that it will give punters an edge when it comes to making their selections. For the purposes of this analysis, we are looking at results over the last 7 years.

We are going to start with the non-handicap races:

Suggest Criteria – Non-Handicap Races – 2miles – 2miles 5f – Chase or Hurdle only

Horses that met the above criteria have the following record in qualifying races during the last 7 years – 97 runs – 35 wins – 20 places – +52.79 SP_PL. In simple terms that means they won 53% of all non-handicap races over the detailed distances at the Festival in the last 7 years. Furthermore, horse matching the criteria that went off as favourite, recorded a win percentage of 62%!

In summary, when assessing horses in these category of races, you want to be looking for horses in form, that are race fit (but not over worked), with experience at graded tracks, who are in the care of top trainers. Always remember that trainers plot their horses for the festival very early in the season, especially when it comes to the big non-handicap races so personally, we would put a line through any horse that had previously run in a handicap. Given the testing nature of the track both in terms of stamina, pace and jumping, we would also be very weary about backing anything which had failed to complete on any of its last few starts especially last time out.

Moving onto the handicap races and this is where it gets difficult so we are going to split the stats so that we can look at hurdle and chase races separately.

Handicap Hurdle Trends & Statistics

In summary, trying to find winners in the handicap hurdle races at the festival is never easy but using the stats above can help punters to assess potential value. For example, if you see a horse trained by a particular trainer such as those detailed in section 5 above or fancy a horse that had its previous run at one of the tracks detailed in section 6, you have to undertake a detail evaluation of that horse’s price because history tells us that they will be fighting an uphill battle to win and statistically speaking, you need the horse to be priced around the 100/1 mark for it to be considered any kind of value.

Handicap Chase Trends & Statistics

In simple terms, finding winners in any handicap race at the festival is tough. If top trainers are struggling to place their horses to win then punters will find it equally difficult to find a potential bet. That being said, look for the key indicators, assess the form and the horses profile and once you have a potential bet in mind it’s crucial that you then assess the potential value, we can’t reiterate that enough.

For more key trends, betting tips and racing info visit us at wtdtips.com or follow us on twitter @WhatTheDuckTips. We also have an active profile with Tipstrr.com which has recorded staggering profit since we first started proofing back in December. A link to our profile can be found below.

https://tipstrr.com/tipster/the-ducking-place-bet

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